Pending Home Sales Index Shows Market Stabilizing

WASHINGTON (October 2, 2006) – Pending home sales are up, indicating a stabilization is taking place in the housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* based on contracts signed in August, rose 4.3 percent to a level of 110.1 from a reading of 105.6 in July, but is 14.1 percent lower than August 2005.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the rise in the index is a hopeful sign. “Our sense is that home sales may have reached a low in August – the Pending Home Sales Index shows home sales should be fairly stable over the next two months, although a minor decline is possible,” he said. “With fewer new listings coming on the market, we should be able to draw down the inventory supply early next year to the point where home prices will rise, but at a slower pace than historic norms.”

The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed and the transaction has not closed, but the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined, and was the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and actual market performance than with month-to-month comparisons; analysis shows a strong parallel between changes in the index from a year ago and the actual pace of home sales in coming months.

Regionally, the PHSI in the West rose 9.2 percent in August to 112.7 but was 16.9 percent below August 2005. The index in the South increased 4.0 percent to 126.8 in August but was 9.4 percent below a year ago. In the Northeast, the index rose 3.6 percent in August to 95.4 but was 12.4 percent below August 2005. The index in the Midwest was unchanged at 93.8 in August and was 20.4 percent lower than a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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* The Pending Home Sales Index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer parallel between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than there is with month-to-month comparisons.

The forecast will be revised October 11, and existing-home sales for September will be released October 25. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on November 1.