Manhattan Beach.. February storms
2009 has been quite a year for Manhattan Beach real estate as well as for real estate in all the Beach Cities. The year started out following dismal home sales in the 4th quarter in 2008. The the financial markets took a huge dive and a number of folks saw their stock portfolios and 401 K plans sink like the Titanic. Manhattan Beach and the Beach Cities saw some major changes in the local real estate market as inventory rose and prices declined.
Financing was difficult to obtain as the FEDS had dropped the conforming jumbo loan limit to $625,000 from $729,750 as of November 2008. While the FEDS agreed to raise the limit again in February, lenders were not able to fund loans until the end of April. Jumbo loans were only being offered by a few institutions and they were (and still are) difficult to obtain as most lenders want very high FICO scores along with down payments in excess of 20%. That left of lot of months with few choices for many consumers who were considering buying a home. Just to make things more interesting the government also changed the way appraisals were handled which led to a slew of issues that are still a problem.
Interest rates were moving upward and the housing market was stalling so the FEDS decided to support the market by keeping loan interest rates low. Some buyers bought homes in Manhattan Beach using FHA financing and that hadn't happened in 25 years. With lower prices and low interest rates the market began rebounding in the summer and continued into the 4th quarter as many buyers decided it was time to get back into the market. Inventory began to decline and suddenly multiple offers were back but with a caveat this time... the property had to be priced at or below market value. Buyers know where market value lies and homes that are over priced continue to sit.
The coming months will see some major changes to our current market. As of March 31, 2010 the FED will stop supporting mortgage rates by buying mortgage backed securities. There is a lot of speculation about how this will affect rates as no one knows whether or not investors will pick up the slack or find other places to invest their fund. FHA will be tightening up their rules again. Minimum FICO scores will increase as will the upfront fees buyers must pay. Sellers will be limited to paying a maximum of 3% toward buyer closing costs. While we still do not do a lot of FHA loans the new rules will have an effect on Fannie and Freddie conforming loans. If Fannie and Freddie continue to see more trouble with their existing portfolios you can expect to see a tightening of underwriting rules . These steps may well have an impact on the underwriting guidelines of Jumbo loans. Lack of financing has always been a hurdle in our market and will continue to be an issue even for the highly qualified buyer.
Another area of concern is foreclosures. While stories run high about shadow inventory there isn't any real information on the numbers. Issues with continued high unemployment nationally and in California will exert pressure on homeowners at the high and low end of the scale. Loan resets are a reality and will have some effect on all homeowners. In California a moratorium on foreclosures by the state legislature has ended and we may indeed see more distressed properties hit the market. The big question is will they be in Manhattan Beach or Morongo Valley.
Below are two sets of data.. One set covers home sales by month and by year for July-December 2000-2009. ( January-June 2000-2009) The other is for sales in Manhattan Beach east of Sepulveda and west of Sepulveda from July-December. ( January-June Sales 2007-2009)
Manhattan Beach: Home Sales January-December 2000-2009
Manhattan Beach sales by month: ( single family homes no townhomes)
Manhattan Beach sales by year:
Manhattan Beach: Westside/Eastside 2007-2009
I apologize for posting this information so later but sometimes life gets in the path of real estate... I will also be posting information for Hermosa, Redondo and El Segundo.
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