Friday, January 18, 2008

Manhattan Beach CA: January 2007 vs January 2008

I thought it would be interesting to compare the real estate market in Manhattan Beach in January 2007 to the market in January 2008. Inventory in October 2006 was very high in Manhattan Beach and all the Beach Cities. Buyers had disappeared over the summer of 2006. However in November they decided to step back into the market and inventory decreased by almost 50% by January 2007.

The active listings are for the number of properties availalbe on January 19, 2007 and on January 18, 2008. The sold numbers are for the period from November 1, 2006 -January 19, 2007 and for November 1, 2007-January 18, 2008.

The number of homes for sale is almost identical.... 103 in January 2007 compared to 105 in January 2008. The number of homes sold during the period is 60(2007) compared to 42(2008) a decrease of 18 or 30% fewer homes sold this year. While that isn't great it's not too awful considering the changes in the market. The number that is of concern is the number of pending sales this year compared to last year. At this time last year there were 42 pending sales. Today there are only 13 pending sales which is about significantly lower then last year. That's not good news for home sellers.

While these numbers don't spell calamity as the median price of homes in Manhattan Beach continues to be relatively stable.. they should be of concern. Interest rates are at their lowest point since the Summer of 2005. The problem is that those great rates are for conforming loans( loans less then $417,000). Jumbo loan rates remain on the high side.. almost a full point over conforming loans. This not only affects potential home buyers but also home owners who need or want to refinance their existing mortgages. There are a few lenders who are giving a break to well qualified homeowners who refinance exotic loans into more conventional mortgages. However potential buyers are stuck unless they can figure out a way to take advantage of the lower rates with a conforming first and second along with a large down payment.

The next few months are going to be crucial to the health of the Manhattan Beach and the Beach Cities overall real estate market. Prices continue to be high with minimal declines when compared to other California cities. We are still holding our own in the foreclosure arena but if that changes and inventory increases dramatically we could see a completely different market emerge. The big surprise is that Hermosa appears to have fewer NOD's (notices of default) then any other Beach City... including Manhattan Beach. It would be quite a role reversal if Hermosa turns out to be the most stable market city in our area.

**** Update January 19, 2008.. As of this morning there are 103 active listings.. one new pending sale and one listing taken off the market.. 31 of the listings are New Construction... since January 1, 2008.. there are 3 Pending and 3 Sold New Construction homes

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 30, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 12, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 12, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 29, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 25, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 18, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 25, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 2, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 6, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 23, 2007


Anonymous said...


I will definitely look you up when I'm ready to buy back into MB. We sold our big house 2 years ago when the oldest left for college (one left) and would like to a buy single story home for the long run. In the meantime, we're leasing and have already had the owner offer to sell well below peak market values. I think a market price correction is just begining. Nobody can say how things will be in the future but if the overall economy continues to shrink and we get a Democrat in the White House, we could easily be in for a worse downturn than the last one in the early nineties. There's lots of bills to pay and less money to do so with, especially with the huge monthly nuts people have in this area.

Thanks for your honest approach to real estate.

Kaye Thomas said...

I'll look forward to hearing from you.. This is going to be an intriguing market and the election will cetainly influence the financial community and how they view money costs.

Conformiming money is very cheap.. but jumbo loans are still very costly. Only time will tell how well we are able to survive this downturn..

Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment..