I was recently chastised by a reader who didn't think I was gloomy enough about the current Beach Cities real estate market. He felt that by not saying the entire market was falling apart and we were headed toward the depths of the great abyss I was cheer leading... The Beach Cities real estate market just isn't where he wants it to be right now. It may wind up there but it isn't there today... and if he considers that cheer leading... then he's right.
The problem is that I've been through a number of these markets and while the current market is no great shakes...in fact it stinks... it is far from the worst I've seen over the years. A major measure of where the market is headed is in the number of Bank Owned(***REO) properties in a community. We are definitely seeing more then we saw in previous years because the market has changed. There are more in December of 2008 then there were in January 2008; but we are a long way from seeing the problems of other parts of the state. Palmdale and Lancaster have been seeing 200-300 per day per city.
Will we see more *NOD's, ** NOT's and ***REO's next year... of course. The economy sucks and people are losing their jobs, getting divorced and facing health issues...even in Manhattan Beach and the Beach Cities. Last year The Beach Cities combined saw a total of 85 homes become lender owned.... 6 in El Segundo, 10 in Manhattan Beach, 12 in Hermosa Beach, 39 in North Redondo and 18 in South Redondo. It would not surprise me to see at least twice that number in 2009. These numbers will not create chaos in the Beach Cities. They will however push prices further downward...as appraisers view the REO prices as appropriate market comps rather then aberrations in the marketplace. This is bad news for sellers and good news for buyers.
South Bay-Beach Cities: NOT's January - December 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: REO's January-December 2008
* NOD's( Notice of Default)
** NOT's ( Notice of Trustee Sale)
*** REO's ( Bank owned properties)
Click here for information on how the foreclosure process works....