Manhattan Beach: February Days on Market
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 4, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 13, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 19, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 17, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 7, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 20, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 5, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 29, 2008
Manhattan Beach:Market Snapshot April 14, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 31, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 13, 2008
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 26, 2008
Manhattan Beach, CA: Market Snapshot February 11, 2008
Manhattan Beach, CA: Market Snapshot December 12, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 12, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 29, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 25, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 18, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 25, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 2, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 6, 2007
Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 23, 2007
6 comments:
Time for the regularly scheduled market cheerleading report. Maybe in "approaching peak levels of last year", you should mention it's approaching the peak of all of 2008 and it's only the beginning of February. Even with prices down 15%, sales are worse than ever. I wonder what that means...
You shouldn't even post any words, just an image: Wile E. Coyote's just run off a cliff, his legs are still madly pumping away, he's turned towards the camera realizing in horror and just started to fall out of frame. Welcome to the beaches, 2009.
Anon 7:37,
Interesting that you found this to be a "cheerleading" report.
It's the market being "down but not out" type comments and the ambiguity in the comment about the peak that makes me say it. Or the comment a just a month or so ago when you anticipated a total 15% drop barring unforeseen circumstances for the market. While your enthusiasm has certainly dampened in the past months, you still can't seem to come right out and say what is going through most heads, including yours I imagine.
It's economic physics. Barring the intervention of outside force, what goes up must come down in MB like everywhere else. It's just a matter of how steep the price arc is going to be, and how far up a slope ground inflation has to come before the twain shall meet.
If there were some outside circumstance responsible for rising prices in MB the last few years, as I've seen you frequently contend, or MB had not risen as steeply as elsewhere, the bubble arc in the area would not be approximately in line with the arc elsewhere in the state, it would either he higher or lower. Then, the easy money bubble would still deflate though not be as dramatic.
Please correct me if I'm wrong about the two arcs being about the same, and some concrete evidence would certainly help sell the argument. I'd really love to see evidence of what you've suggested, and am ready to reevaluate my own estimates and giving you credit, but need to see some proof.
Anon 12:40,
Welcome to unforseen circumstances... and a bigger decline in prices then 15%. I'm guessing another 10% this year so we will have seen about 25% total since 2005. In the 90's we saw roughly a 30% decline. If economy gets worse we might see numbers close to a 30% total but I am still doubting a 50% or 60% decline. If we see that happen in MB you will not like that economic picture in either the country or the South Bay.
I've always maintained two things...
1. We would see problems in MB.. but that they just might not be as severe as other markets... I still believe that.
2. All bets are off if we hit a recession. In the current economic climate there are too many variables that can and will affect our market. If we see substantial umemployment hit our area things could get very nasty.. but so far that isn't happening.
MB has seen prices rise well over 100% from the 90's. Easy money played a role in the last part of the rise.
If you check out the info below you will see that the number of homes under $500,000 dropped drastically from 1998-2002 as prices rose. This was before financing or lowered requirements played a big roll.
In 1998 there were 560 single family homes sold...153 were under $500,000.
In 1999 there were 433 homes that closed escrow...106 were under $500,000.
In 2000 there were 547 single family home sold...71 were under $500,000.
In 2001 there were 473 homes sold and 53 of those were under $500,000.
In 2002 there were 565 homes sold and 29 of those were under $500,000
You might also check out this post on prices from 1995-1995.
http://budurl.com/9fpf
Interest rates were not low and you needed full doc qualifying with 20% down.... but home prices increased substantially during that time frame.
My perspective is obviously different from yours. I've seen down and dead markets and this market isn't there yet. When it is I'll say so in print.
So, I'm assuming you don't have anything to show the bubble arc in MB is different than elsewhere in the state, because the info you're regurgitating from another recent post certainly isn't it. Just for one, the ten year graphs at Zillow blow a huge hole in your thesis.
The one thing I'm sure you're right about is that I won't like the economic climate when the fallout comes. Hell, I don't like it now. But the writing has been on the wall for a long time, and you keep hiding behind caveats that all will be well "if" x happens, when the real surprise would be if somehow someone miraculously finds a way to dodge the bullet.
I don't suppose you regularly read blogs like Calculated Risk or put much stock in forecasts from folks like Doctor Doom and The Black Swan who saw this coming, but you might want to check out this CNBC clip:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/cnbc-dr-doom-black-swan.html
There's common sense in their words. The snowball is too big, not enough has changed, and MB might still be in a bubble, but it doesn't exist in a vacuum.
Anon 6:40
Hmmmm... so the fact that between 1995 and 1999 the median price in MB went from $417,000 to $620,000, with no shady loans and all borrowers having to fully qualify is of zero significance. You don't think that demand alone may had something to do with that price rise...or the rise in prices until 2002 when other factors took over the market. I always find it interesting that supply and demand never seem to have a place in the real estate market... unless the supply is bigger then the demand.
Of course our market is in trouble but the fact that it is not catastrophic is a good. It is the what ifs that make a significant difference in markets. As long as the population in MB and the other Beach Cities remains employed and can pay their bills you are not going to see the housing market come crashing down. Prices will continue to decline as buyers review their options. The lack of jumbo loans will also force down prices. But you have to have more then that to have a market crumble. Never underestimate the value of stability.
So let me pose a question to you... what if the Beach Cities market doesn't totally tank and manages to hang on better then... say Riverside. What if prices manage to slide just so far and no farther. What if in three or four years the market makes a small comeback and folks who want a new house are willing to pay a premium because builders aren't building as they pulled out of the market in 2007. What if all the people who sat on the sidelines since 2006 suddenly decide to buy... Who and what will be to blame if prices move up once again.
Yes, I read and like Calculated Risk and was very sad about Tanta.
Post a Comment