Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Buying a Beach City Home: New Rules Will Affect Escrow Closing Dates


It seems that the folks in D.C. are still very busy trying to close the barn door ... long after the barn has burned down. While I give them marks on one hand for trying to fix a number of problems within the home lending sector ... you have to wonder if they actually give much thought to how changes in laws will affect real people.

You also have to wonder why they don't fix the biggest problem in the industry... the lack of regulation of the fees charged by lenders to borrowers. While there has been lots of talk over the years about regulation nothing ever seems to make it out of committee.

The Mortgage Disclosure Improvement Act contains some major changes that may affect your escrow closing date on all loans that are covered under RESPA related to an owner occupied residence. The second change covers new regulations concerning the financial information you provide to your lender if you are obtaining a conforming loan.

Changes to Truth in Lending:

Starting on July 30, 2009 the following changes will be implemented:

1. Within 3 business days a lender must provide a borrower an initial good faith estimate of the terms of the loan and the lenders charges.... however a lender must now wait a minimum of 7 business days after the initial disclosure is sent to close the loan.


2. If the initial good faith estimate changes because... the interest rate goes up or down by more then 0.125% or there is a change in the fees the borrower is charged by $100 or more... then a new disclosure must be given to the borrower and the escrow can't close until at least 3 business days after the borrower has received the revised disclosure. There are a number of items that can trigger either of the above situations and extend the escrow period by 5-6 days.

This may not seem like a big deal... but if you have locked in a specific loan rate and your lock is set to expire and you suddenly have to do a new disclosure it could be very expensive if you have to extend the rate. This could also raise some issues if you are buying a home that is part of an exchange... the rules are very specific about closing dates and a late closing could create tax consequences for a seller.

I expect that what will happen is that buyers and sellers are going to have to make some major compromises on closing dates and taking possession if there is even a hint that the original estimate might be changed.



Income and asset documentation changes:

The second change will go into effect on September 1, 2009. The changes will affect credit scores, income calculations, income from stocks bonds and mutual funds, asset documentation, retirement assets and trailing spouse income. There will also be major changes in the requirements on owner occupied 2 unit properties. You will need more money down and higher FICO scores.

Here are a few highlights:

1. Credit, income and asset documentation can't be older then 90 days. So if you got qualified in March you would need to submit new information by July.

2. Lenders now must compare your filed Federal tax return to the income you are stating. Pay stubs will not be enough by themselves.

3. If your spouse is a trailing spouse and doesn't have verifiable new employment on the date you move you can't count the expected income until the spouse actually has a job.

4. You can now only use 70% of the value of your Stocks, bonds and mutual funds assets... previously you could use 100% of the value.

5. If you are retired then you can only count 60% of your retirement assets rather then 70%.




While many of the changes being enacted by Congress are meant to curb previous excesses as we saw with the change in Appraisal rules... sometimes good intentions are not enough.






Saturday, July 25, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 23, 2009

Manhattan Beach: July Days on Market




Inventory has dropped significantly over the last few months as sales have shown a marked improvement. Manhattan Beach home sales in April, May, June and July were up considerably over the preceeding 6 months. Low interest rates and falling prices have helped to boost sales over the last four months.


Traditionally sales begin to slack off in August as folks think about a last trip for the summer and gear up for school to start. From September to the end of October sales continue to be on the slow side but often post a slight uptick toward the end of the year as deals come together for those who must sell and those who must buy before the end of the calendar year.

If interest rates continue to be low, jumbo loans stay available and prices keep dipping; then we may see a slightly longer selling season... perhaps into September. The major key to continued sales will be prices. Of the 19 closed sales in Manhattan Beach as of July 23, 2009, 14 were under $2M. Currently of the 153 homes for sale... 71 are under $2M and 82 are over the $2M mark. This is a market that is out of balance. Generally the majority of homes are in the middle price ranges. In Manhattan Beach we are seeing inventory levels below $2M declining while inventory above that range is increasing with few sales.


While prices are hovering between 2004-2005 levels in all the Beach Cities, there is still a strong core of homeowners who believe they are immune to the market. To be fair this is not limited to Manhattan Beach but is also a hope of many home sellers in Hermosa and South Redondo. As low appraisals continue to hit the market, many of these sellers are going to find themselves in a pickle when there are not enough comps to justify a higher price and buyers won't pay more then the appraised value.





Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 22, 2009( click on graph to enlarge)








Manhattan Beach: Price Ranges July 23, 2009





Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 15, 2009


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 11, 2009


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 14, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 14, 2009


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot February 10, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot January 19, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot December 4, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot November 8, 2008


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot October 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 19, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 17, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 7, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 20, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 5, 2008


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 29, 2008

Manhattan Beach:
Market Snapshot April 14, 2008

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 31, 2008


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot March 13, 2008

Manhattan Beach:
Market Snapshot February 26, 2008

Manhattan Beach, CA:
Market Snapshot February 11, 2008

*There are a few more sales and pending sales not on the MLS that are not included in the graphs.

Monday, July 06, 2009

Manhattan Beach: January-June 2000-2009... sales by month



No matter how much our local Beach Cities real estate market has changed in the last few years a number of things always remain the same when you have a declining real estate market. Sellers never want to accept how much prices have dropped and buyers never believe that they have dropped enough.



Sometimes it helps to see a larger survery of sale data. I've pulled the number of sales, median sale price and the price per square foot from January-June 2000-2009. Although sales have picked up in recent months they are still quite low when compared to prior years. I don't think there is much doubt that the drop in volume is closely related to the lack of jumbo financing since 2007.



Looking at the numbers there is no question that the median price and the price per square foot took a major dive this year... and seem to be hovering between 2004 and 2005 numbers. While this is slightly better then the figures for LA County as a whole it does show that values in Manhattan Beach have seen some major adjustments over the same period last year.





Manhattan Beach: January-June 2000-2006.. Sales by month(click on graph to enlarge)





Manhattan Beach: January-June 2007-2009 Sales by month.





Manhattan Beach: YOY...Sold January-June 2000-2009



















*** These are single family sales from the MLS and do not include townhomes, condos or income property or off MLS sales...

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Second Quarter Sales January to June 2007-2009


Ercoles.. the oldest restaurant in Manhattan Beach


As I noted a few months ago when I posted the First Quarter Sales figures for Manhattan Beach this will become a regular feature every quarter. There is a lot of information about our local real estate market that these numbers provide. Although I'll admit that over the last few days I'm seeing numbers everywhere and even find myself dreaming about median price and price per square foot.

We all know that statistics can take on a life of their own. When viewing our local Manhattan Beach real estate market , the numbers tell their own tale. If you look at the numbers on a month by month basis things look pretty bad. While still dismal, when viewed over time, a pattern begins to emerge showing that the number of sales, while significantly lower then those in 2007, have been fairly stable over the last two years.

The volume of sales is down about 40% from 2007 and roughly 16% from 2008 for the first part of the year. The kicker in the deck is prices. Since the begining of the year home prices have dropped about 22% compared to the same period last year. There were 112 homes that sold from January to June 2009. 92 of them had at least one price reduction before finding a buyer, 8 were sold over the list price and 13 appear to have sold at the listed price.

There is more going on now then these number show. Currently there are 150 homes for sale in Manhattan Beach. Inventory has dropped dramatically because homes are selling.... the big question is what is selling. There are 81 properties pending...67 homes and 14 townhomes. The median asking price for homes that are in escrow is $1,575,000 and for townhomes it is $1,194,000. The median sold price for homes in June was $ 1, 402,500 and $1,217,000 for townhomes.. But.... the median list price for homes that are for sale is $2,349,500 and $1,364,000 for townhomes.

Herein lies the problem with our current market. Of the 150 homes for sale only 65( less then half) are priced under $2,000,000. There is very little demand for homes priced over $2,000,000 for a number of reasons, but mainly because of financing. While we have our share of buyers with some big bucks... they are not in the majority. Most buyers looking in Manhattan Beach today have 30%-50% cash needed for a down payment on a home under $2.5 but they still need some type of bank financing. There are lenders offering loans over $1.5 but most lenders really don't want to make loans over that number. So I'm guessing that one of two things will happpen... either these higher end homes will be taken off the market or you are going to see some very hefty price reductions in the future. I also think you are going to see an increase in owner financing to bridge the gap.




Manhattan Beach: Sold January-June 2007-2009(click on graph to enlarge)





Manhattan Beach: Sold April-June 2007-2009






Manhattan Beach: Sold West of Sepulveda January-June 2007-2009







Manhattan Beach: Sold West of Sepulveda April-June 2007-2009








Manhattan Beach: Sold East of Sepulveda January-June 2007-2009





Manhattan Beach: Sold East of Sepulveda April-June 2007-2009






***All Data is based on MLS information .. Sales not on MLS are not included... some charts have been adjusted to reflect an additional posted sale for June 2009