Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 25, 2007

Downtown Manhattan Beach

The last three weeks have been like driving a car downhill without brakes. No one knows what will happen at the bottom of the hill but we all hope for a safe stop without anyone getting hurt. There is a lot of speculation about how the woes of the credit market will affect the Beach Cities and Manhattan Beach in particular.

I have no answers because there are no immediate answers...just a lot of questions that can only be answered over time. All I can share at this time is what I do know....

I know that we are not seeing a run up in foreclosures notices in Manhattan Beach and the Beach Cities. I know that if you have to refinance you can get a 90% LTV jumbo loan around 7%-7.5% fixed ( maybe a bit less) or a 6.5% adjustable providing you don't take any cash out and yesterday I heard about a HELOC program that can be used as a first for 10 years at a fixed rate. I know that a number of lenders are making jumbo loans... even some hybrid types of stated income jumbo loans.. with 10%-20% down if you have a good FICO score and verifiable assets. I know people are still buying and selling homes although at a slower pace so far this month. I know that you need to pick a reputable lender who knows the market and can offer you not only sound financial advice but has a lot of connections with a number of lenders.

I know there will be some people who are in trouble and will have to sell. I know there will be some people who will go into foreclosure. I know there will be some short sales. I know there will be some buyers who will no longer qualify for a loan as high as they need to buy the home of their dreams. These are things I know because these things always happen.

I know that in 1979 interest rates jumped from 11% to 17% in less then 6 months and the credit market had almost no liquidity. I know that in the 80's the S & L's went under because of bad judgment by lenders. I know that in the 90's we had massive foreclosures because people lost their jobs and were unable to find new employment. I know that the market always rebounded. I know this market is totally different from others in the past yet is very similar to all of them.

I think we will make it through a little bruised but intact to the dismay of many who are hoping for a market collapse. I know only time will tell where this market is headed. I know that by the time people figure out it is time to buy the best deals will have gone to those who took a chance in the market because this is the way it always happens. Now you know what I know... so let's see what's happening in Manhattan Beach

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 25, 2007

(click on graph to enlarge)

Market Price Ranges

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 5, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot July 18, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 25, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot June 2, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot May 6, 2007

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot April 23, 2007

My October Challenge... January Results.. MB Home Sales

On October 27 in a post on Making Housing Decisions from Headline News..
I posed the following challenge:


So here's a thought... In Manhattan Beach there are currently 215 single family homes on the market. 70 have been listed since October 1; 23 have gone into escrow since October 1; and 18 have closed escrow in the same period. So let's say that by next week perhaps another 10 homes are in escrow and 5 new ones have been added so we are 5 down in inventory to 210 as of Nov 1. As we get closer to the holidays about 15% (30) of the homes now available will be taken off the market each month. There will be a few new listings maybe 8 added per month. So... 30-8= 22 x 2 months 44 homes off the market in November and December. Perhaps another 15 a month go into escrow.. that's 30 gone. Not a lot of sales but the inventory level would go from 210 as of Nov 1 to 136 in January. That's about a 35% change in inventory. Would a 35% change and low interest rates bring out buyers? Let's compare notes in January.

Well it's a little past mid January so what happened in Manhattan Beach since November 1, 2006?
There are 103 homes currently listed. 42 are in escrow and 60 have closed escrow since November 1, 2006. 51 homes were withdrawn from the market and have not returned active. Let assume that 30% (16)of those withdrawn return to the market by the end of this month. That would make make a total of 119 available listings which is about 55% of the number that were available October 27,2006.

In two months almost 50% of the inventory in Manhattan Beach has disappeared..... and most of the decline is due to sales not withdrawn/expired properties. Rates were very low from Mid November through the end of December. It looks as if if many people took advantage of sellers who were willing to negotiate and low rates.

I wrote this in the same article in October:
Trying to time a housing market is almost impossible and usually depends on luck more then skill. Often by the time the general public realizes a market has changed it is too late to get in at the right time.

Just something to think about over the next few months for those of you who are still waiting for prices to drop to 2000 levels.

*** These numbers are for single family homes.. but numbers are similar for townhomes.. inventory is very low and a lot of property has closed escrow.