Wednesday, November 19, 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold October 2008

Redondo Beach: Craftsman Homes

What a day.. .the DOW ended under 8000, oil just under $53 and the Big 3 went to D.C. to beg for money but couldn't quite come up with the dollar figure they needed compared to the one they wanted. King Hank told us we had to buy bad mortgages or the world would end and then changed his mind. Seems like everyone has their hands out or rather digging into the pockets of thee and me... the taxpayer to make their bad business decisions better.

I've always maintained that if we had a major recession all bets would be off about what would happen with home prices in Manhattan Beach and the Beach Cities. I think it's safe to say that we are definitely in a recession. The recession, combined with the ongoing upheaval in the stock market and the continuing lack of credit in the financial sector, will ultimately lead to lower prices for all the Beach Cities.

The big question facing our local real estate market is whether or not we will see small declines in value or get hit with some big losses. The truth is I don't know and neither does anyone else. So far the South Bay economy has held up fairly well. We haven't had a lot of local companies posting large layoffs. We seem to be diversified enough at this point that we don't have any major employers in big trouble. That could change but so far so good.

The same is true with the housing market. We have seen some foreclosures in the Beach Cities but compared to other areas of Southern California we are not doing too bad. However that doesn't mean we are not seeing changes in the housing market. Small signs are beginning to appear... townhomes in Manhattan Village and single family homes in East Manhattan Beach priced under $800, and townhomes in North Redondo under $500,000... these are just a few of the signs of a changing market.

While we are not seeing a collapse of the market... I suspect that we will see further declines in value. However the Beach Cities should maintain value better then neighboring communities. Properties close to the ocean will maintain value better then those east of Sepulveda. South Redondo and Hermosa will likely hold up slightly better then North Redondo. El Segundo will continue at its own pace... following a slightly different drummer.

Here's a surprise... even with all the ups and downs since September 15, 2008... the Beach Cities are seeing higher sales volume in October of 2008 then in October of 2007. Pending sales in November are running about one sale per day... not great but better then many anticipated at this point.

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold October 2008 (click on graph to enlarge)

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold August 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: SOLD March 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: October SOLD 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: September SOLD 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: August SOLD 2007

South Bay- Beach Cities: July Sold 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2007


Anonymous said...

I really enjoy your posts.
I have been watching the market closely for 3 years. Last year we thought about buying a tree section home for $2.4. Today I can get a brand new home in the trees for less then 2.0.

What has been your experience with sellers? Are they becoming more realistic about price? There still seems to be many overpriced homes in the market.
In addition, there is much more inventory in the hill section. I think many of these homes (especially brand new) are very overpriced in todays market.

What do you think?

Kaye Thomas said...

Anonymous 12:45,
Thank you...I'm glad you find my blog posts of interest.

I've noticed a change in sellers in all the Beach Cities in the last few weeks. I think with all the bad economic news sellers are finally realizing that they are headed for some tough times.

I see definite signs that sellers are ready to negotiate. Some are reluctant to officially lower prices but most (not all) know that times have changed. I think you are going to begin to see lower prices when a property is first listed rather then the "let's wait and see" attitude of previous months. Sellers who have been trying to sell will either have to lower the price or go off market.

You are going to see lower prices in all of MB even the larger homes in the Hill section and new construction everywhere. My sellers on Dianthus took a hard look at the market and are lowering their price to $1.2 and they will take back a note.

I think you will definitely see lower prices on homes with motivated sellers. Others who don't have to sell will take their homes off the market for the next 3-5 years.