If you are a bit confused about what's happening in the South Bay-Beach Cities' real estate market ... join the club. On the one hand it seems that foreclosure filings in October 2009 in California are up 22% from September 2009 and are running 20% higher then in October 2008. On the other hand our South Bay-Beach Cities real estate market has still not seen a huge number of REO properties. The number of short sales seems to be on the rise but still not nearly as high as in other markets. There was a good article in the Daily Breeze yesterday about the role of government intervention in the housing market. It underlies a lot of the issues that affect our local real estate market.
The housing inventory in the South Bay-Beach Cities is significantly lower then we have seen in a long time. Pending home sales are up in all the Beach Cities and the closed sales volume continues to hold up better then expected. But don't be mislead.... this is still a tough market and the end isn't yet in sight.
Well priced entry level homes in all the Beach Cities are selling in days often with multiple offers. A moderately priced REO in east Manhattan just sold with an all cash offer, after less then 3 days on the market, at a price well over the listed price. Meanwhile homes that are priced above market continue to sit with little or no interest until they are either taken off the market or the price is reduced enough to generate renewed interest. This seems to be true across the board in all price ranges and in all cities.
Many of the homes that enter escrow wind up back on the market because of appraisal problems. Others don't close because of issues that crop up at the last minute during the final underwriting of the loan. This is especially true if you are obtaining a jumbo loan. The same lender who told you 30 days ago that you had amazing FICO scores and plenty of money will now look at you as if you are skimming for fun and profit with Bernie Madoff. Sometimes it seems that no matter what banks say in their ads they really don't want to make loans.... Do they really need you to find a copy of your first paycheck stub from 1979 in 24 hours as the final condition for obtaining a loan?
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold October 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold August 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2009
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold December 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold October 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold August 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: SOLD March 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2008
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: October SOLD 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: September SOLD 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: August SOLD 2007
South Bay- Beach Cities: July Sold 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2007
South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2007
8 comments:
Kaye,
Did you see the price chop on this property today--
MLS # S09008172
Did you see that this one delisted, evidently unable to sell at 25% off its 2005 price after over 100 days--
MLS #: S09082909
It looks like one way or another, the second one, 704 4th, is going to sell. Maybe it will be bid up, maybe not, but it could well be a benchmark for Hermosa and a comp the neighbors are not going to like.
I don't track the citywide numbers, but i do keep a close eye on properties in HB between 800k and 1.25. And there are signs of a lot of pain going on behind the scenes, and a clear direction to the market. Lots of cancellations, and short sales moving from the dumps to the cherries. Very few actual organic sales.
You have to win the lottery to hang in and get your original asking. Congrats are probably in order for 1855 hillcrest getting close to the 999k asking after more than 5 months, so its possible. 1550 Loma is another long-termer that finally sold (though at a big loss)--its still possible to get a 2004 price, but it takes luck and time. On the other hand, grandpa 1419 Monterey says something, as does the relisting games at 733-745 21st, 619 1st and others. And as for the desperate and repeated craigslisting of 1860 PCH #A at 475k...ouch.
Don't know if you are a reader of Mark Hanson's blog, but he is worth following. His latest:
http://mhanson.com/archives/305
There are signs he is not wrong--it seems like the question is not if, but when. You have any specific success stories that counter?
Wayne,
Yes I saw both properties on the MLS update. MLS #S09008172
is now officially a short sale and they are working with a negotiator. It was set to go to auction but that has been postponed. It may not get bid up as there have been some recent sales at that price level and below so who knows.
I suspect you may see MLS #S09082909 come back on the market again. However the lender is difficult when it comes to short sales which could explain why the property didn't find a buyer.
1860 PCH units A and B are both in escrow with approved short sales but nothing is written in stone until they actually close escrow.
I do read Mark Hanson from time to time. He is probably more right then wrong on this call but I'm not sure it will be the complete disaster he predicts. There is no question that until unemployment is under control we are going to see more issues with housing.
It's tough to make your house payments if you lose your job or a significant portion of your income. I know a number of high income folks who will not be making as much money next year as they did last year.
Who does the short sale negotiator rep? I've heard they typically pop up a 7-8 K fee at the end that the buyer must pay out of hand.
How many S. Bay short sales have used a negotiator?
Also, interesting on the MB median. Decent volume of sales. Says low end is pretty hot, and high end is not.
Anon 8:36,
In this case the negotiator is with the bank. Most banks have realized that they need someone other then Stan in accounts receivable to handle short sale requests. Some of these folks are very good and others so-so.
Owners often try to hire someone to negotiate on their behalf with the bank but you have to be very careful about that as a lot of these "facilitators" just take your money and provide no service.
You are right about the low end being where the action is right now. There have been some pretty good deals at the upper end of the scale but most of the momentum is at $1.2 or less. However even at the entry level the property has to be priced at market or it will sit.
Hi Kaye - just an FYI, did you hear about Wachovia's short sale program?
http://sunnyspot.sfv-re.com/2009/11/wachovia-rolls-out-aggressive-short-sale-program/
They're serious about closing within 45 days, but claim they're closing in 28 days on average in Northern CA.
I did a search for preforeclosures in Manhattan Beach, none came up. But I did find some in Torrance, Redondo and Hermosa.
Maggie,
Thanks for the update... MB still isn't seeing as many foreclosures as other Beach Cities but I understand there may be a few more after the first of the year.
Can you post any more about what you are hearing?
Right now there is 1205 23rd and 758 14th. I don't know if there are others.
Realquest now lists 15 REO's, but I suspect there are duplicates and old listings.
http://www.realquestinvestor.com/rq/default.aspx
One thing is true.....the numbers listed for Preforeclosures (38 today), Auctions (14 today), and REO's (15 today) continues to go up over time.
Also, the 23rd listing has shown as an REO on the realquest website for several months, but only recently made it to the MLS. How long does it usually take?
Anon 3:47,
I'll be posting shortly about some of the things I've been hearing about the commercial market and how I think it may affect residential real estate..
I used to have a great resource for REO info but it is no longer available so I use what shows in tax records as recorded.
Many of the "REO's" and "Foreclosures" on various sites are actually loans.. so if a property has two loans then it will show as a new foreclosure twice when it is really one property. And yes many of the properties that show up are old and have been sold.
There is no universal rule about how long it can take for a home to reach the market after the lender forecloses. Some lenders are fairly quick and others are very very slow. It can take anywhere from 3 months to over a year for a lender to finally place a home on the market.
Sometime sites use auction dates and will show a property as foreclosed after the date has passed. However the lender may decide not to take the home to auction for a number of reasons... there may be a very good offer that was received late in the process or the borrower may be able to prove that they can reinstate the loan and make up back payments.
It would be nice if there were some specific guidelines that all lenders had to follow when dealing with the marketing of REO's.
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