South Bay-Beach Cities Home Sales: Will $15 K make a difference

The U.S. Senate in an effort to customize their version of the Bailout Bill and add a few more perks the House missed, voted to give home buyers a credit of 10% of the sale price or a maximum of $15,000 on a home purchase. Of course the bill is not actually a done deal... It has to go back to The House and then be signed by The President before it takes effect. Right now I'm guessing the bill will be changed along the way and won't be ready for consumers anytime soon... if ever.

Unlike the previous version of a $7500 tax credit that must be paid back..the new bill will not require buyers to reimburse the government...ie taxpayers... for the money. I understand the idea behind the bill but once again I think the folks in DC are off the mark.

Would a $15,000 credit stimulate sales in the South Bay-Beach Cities...yes and no. Certainly getting an extra $15K credit looks like a good deal for anyone buying but the problem is that while the credit is nice, it's pretty useless if banks are not making loans. And therein lies one of the major problems with many of the ideas about real estate and the housing market floating around Washington.

You can pass stimulus packages 'til the cows come home..but they are pretty useless if consumers can't use them. If the boys in DC are really serious about doing something about the housing crisis then I would suggest that the first step is putting a few conditions on the money they are passing around to lending instutions... namely if you want money from the government you have to make loans on homes.

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2008

Real Estate Information on Listings, Pending and Sold properties in the South Bay-Beach Cities September 2008.....



Hermosa Beach Strand...


After another wild ride in the stock market last week the weeek ended with the market up slightly by the close on Friday. The good news is that the credit markets actually seem to be loosening up a bit... the bad news is that the current economic malaise is the new concern as the R word is now an accepted reality. Consumers just can't seem to catch a break.

So far the South Bay economy has held up better the other parts of the County and State but there are no guarantees this will continue. If the credit markets do loosen up then we may see a milder recession locally... if they don't things could get bad for us as well. The problem with recession numbers is that you generally don't know how bad they are until after they are over. However we can count on a general slowdown in a number of areas including home sales while the economy sorts itself out.

Interest rates appear to be coming down slowly after rising last week. The LIBOR is showing declines as the global credit market seems to be settling. Declines in the Prime and LIBOR may mean lower rates for loans that will be resetting in the next 2-4 months. Overall I think we can expect to see rates begin to increase.

The days of the 5.5% fixed rate are over. I'm guessing rates for loans under $729,750** will remain around 6.3%-6.6% for the rest of the year. Jumbo fixed rates will continue to be high although they should drop from the 8.25% level. Jumbo 5/1 ARMS will be reasonable at 6.65%-7%. As I've noted before I'm not sure banks really want to make Jumbo 30 year fixed rate loans and will continue to keep rates on these loans high and encourage buyers to move into ARMS. Who wins the election and how the markets respond will determine where rates wind up next year.

September sales held up fairly well in all the Beach Cities compared to sales over the summer. However with what has been happening in the last two weeks we can expect to see October sales remain low. If the markets finally settle we might see a slight increase in sales by the end of the year.

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2008(click on graph to enlarge)










** NOTE: If you have been planning on making use of the $729,750 conforming loan ... banks will probably not fund these loans after December 1, 2008 as the loan limit goes down on January 1, 2009 to $625,000...


Dan Green from the Mortgage Reports offers information on what is and may be happening in the mortgage market over the short term. Lou Barnes also offers some insight into what has been happening in the market.



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold August 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: SOLD March 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: October SOLD 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: September SOLD 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: August SOLD 2007

South Bay- Beach Cities: July Sold 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2007

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2007

Beach Cities: Prices.. What Happened in August?

Wow... August has been a month to remember. The big question is what has happened to real estate and home prices in the Beach Cities of Manhattan, Hermosa, Redondo and El Segundo since August 1, 2007. I know the month is not technically over yet but thought I would post some numbers for all the Beach Cities based on what happened from August 1 - August 30, 2007. The figures reflect new listings and pending sales ( in escrow) since August 1, 2007

Manhattan Beach:

Overall not a great month to be sure but not bad when you consider what's going on in the market. Lot's of high priced listings hit the market this month. However there were also a number of homes that were priced pretty well. One smart builder has at least three homes that just hit the market and all are priced well under the competition.

Listings:
There were 21 home listings ( I'm not counting relisted) 7 were under the $ 2 million mark... 6 were over $3 million.. and the other 8 were in the $2-$3 price range.
There were 5 townhome listings.. two are listed under the price of recent sales of similar units.
Pending Sales:
There were 15 pending home sales and one was 1212 The Strand ... listed at $10.9 million and sold immediately at close to full price. There were lots of buyers looking at this one.... it sold 2 hours after the Broker's Open. This is a record price for a home in Manhattan Beach. 10 of the 15 pendings were under $2 million.
There were 4 townhomes that went into escrow. Two were new construction over $2.4 million

Hermosa Beach:
Lots of new townhomes hit the market and compared to Manhattan Beach the prices are very good. The new listing at $9.5 million on Amby will bear watching. This is a seculded cul de sac with stunning views for those who value their privacy.
Listings:
There were 7 home listings. As in Manhattan Beach, there is a very expensive new custom home listed at $9.5 million. There are 2 others over the $3 million mark.. 2 just a bit under the $3 million mark and the other 2 are under $2 million.
There are 20 new townhome listings... 11 are over $1 million but under $2 million. 4 are new construction.
Pending Sales:
There are 4 pending home sales after August 1, 2007.. Three were under $1 million.
There are 4 pending townhome ssales... all are over $1.3 million... Hmmmm.

North Redondo:
Not a great month for townhomes sales in North Redondo. Next month is going to be pretty dismal for closed escrows. But home sales were not too bad. Prices seem to be shifting downward with a number of properties showing price reductions.
Listings:
There were 17 home listings and 6 of those were over the $1 million mark.
There were 20 townhome listings... 10 of those were under $700,000.
Pending Sales:
There were 9 home sales in August. Five were under the $800,000 range.
There were 12 townhome sales and surprisingly 9 were over $800,000 and of those 3 were over $1 million.

South Redondo:
It was a pretty good month for South Redondo.. especially in the townhome and condo market. The home market over $1 million had a number of sales.
Listings:
There were 9 home listings. Four were over $1.5 million.
There were 18 townhome listings. Six were listed over $1 million and 5 are new construction.
Pending Sales:
There were 9 homes that went into escrow and 8 of those were over $1 million
There were 21 townhomes and condos that went into escrow after August 1. Nine were over $1 million.

El Segundo:
El Segundo is a little different from the rest of the Beach Cities. Not a lot of new listings this month.. and not many sales either. One thing I am noticing is that there is more for sale in The Grand Tropez then usual.
Listings:
There were 2 home listings.
There are 5 townhome/condo listings. Two were under $500,000.
Pending Sales:
There were 2 home sales.. both under $1 million
There were 3 townhome/condo sales.. all under $800,000.

Manhattan Beach: Home Pricing 2000-2007

Manhattan Beach: Home Prices... Price per sqft..

Click on graph to enlarge... Single Family Homes Manhattan Beach

A lot of people don't feel that using the median or average price is a good measurement of the price of homes in the Manhattan Beach real estate market. I think if you use one market value measurement consistently then it doesn't make a lot of difference... as you are always using the same form of measurement.

When CAR releases their monthly figures they use the median figure... so I have always used that number for South Bay real estate figures too. However beginning with the Beach Cities:June 2007 Sold statistics I will be including the cost per sqft for all the Beach Cities. I will also periodically post a price per sqft comparison for Manhattan Beach homes from 2000 to 2007. Below you will find the numbers for the first 6 months of the year.

One of the interesting things about price per square foot is that the number (in a given year) can actually decline as homes get larger. If a lot of larger homes sell in a given month then the figure will be smaller then if a number of smaller homes sold in the previous month of the same year. Also if you have a lot of new construction selling in any given month it can skew the figures. This explains some of the big fluctuatons you often see in Manhattan Beach home prices from month to month.

There is simply no perfect measure of housing costs. If you live in an area with a lot of conforming housing (track homes).. then tracking by cost per sqft is easy. In the Beach Cities it is a more difficult process.

The Chart below reflects the days on market and price per sqft for homes sold from January - June 2000-20007

If you would like to see this expanded to the other beach cities let me know and I will set up graphs for them.. You can e-mail me if you would like to see information for for Hermosa, Redondo and El Segundo.

South Bay/Beach Cities: SOLD.... June 2007

The Strand in Hermosa Beach


No question the local real estate market is slowing but then sales always slow in the summer. Last year at this time the South Bay/Beach Cities market was stalled.. as buyers just simply withdrew. I'm not seeing that this year as buyers are still coming to open houses and I'm getting a lot of inquiries from my websites.

The market is in a real pickle right now as Buyers continue looking closely at prices and wondering if Sellers are going to stand firmon listing prices for their homes or if there might be a little leeway as we hit mid year. Sellers, on the other hand, are wondering if Buyers will finally step up to the listed price or will continue to be selective about price. I suspect they will meet somewhere in the middle.


I know there are a number of sellers who don't want to officially lower the asking price but are hoping someone will make an offer to get things moving. No one wants to make the first move.. Reminds me of teens at a middle school dance.. girls on one side of the room and boys on the other while the music plays and plays.. each one is afraid to be the first on the floor.

I've added a new feature as requested by a lot of readers... The Sold price per sqft next to the median sold price. In another post I'll track if for single family homes in Manhattan Beach and later for all the Beach Cities. for the last few years. I've added it to the inventory list in my newsletter for listings found in the Market Conditions Report.

Beach Cities: Sold June 2007 ( click on the information to enlarge graphic)




Beach Cities: Sold June 2006

Beach Cities: Sold May 2007

Beach Cities: Sold April 2007

Beach Cities: Sold March 2007

Beach Cities: Sold February 2007

Beach Cities: Sold January 2007