Saturday, August 29, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 28, 2009








Manhattan Beach: August 2009 Days on Market



As the Spring/Summer selling season winds down the volume of home sales in Manhattan Beach for August looks as if it will be lower then either June or July. The Days on Market(DOM) continues moving upward as sellers scramble to find a price that buyers find reasonable and sellers can live with.

This is the time of year when smart sellers should be reviewing their current asking price and making adjustments if the home has been on the market over 90 days without an accepted offer. If you are thinking about listing your home for sale this is not the time to test the market if you need to sell before the end of the year. The homes that are selling are the ones that are priced at or slightly below current market value... not the ones trying to hang on to a 2007 price. It is tough for folks who bought in 2005, 2006 or 2007 to accept the idea that their home is worth less then they paid. If you do not have to sell then take your home off the market or rent it out for a while. Trust me on this one... listing your home well above the market price is not in your best interest.

Inventory is lower but the disparity between listed price and sold price is still about 22% for homes in Manhattan Beach. It is also of note that of the 20 homes that have closed escrow so far this month 16 sold for less then two million dollars.


Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot August 28, 2009
























Manhattan Beach: Price Ranges August 28, 2009

Manhattan Beach: Market Snapshot September 15, 2007

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

When your home is worth less then you paid...

What do you do when your home is worth less then the price you paid?






California real estate is a cyclical market with values going up and down. The Beach Cities are no exception. While upscale markets tend to hold on longer and pick up faster after a cycle has gone through its course they are still part of the general real estate cycle and subject to the vagaries of the marketplace. The cycles generally run a 7-10 year course with flat price point periods along the way. During the down cycle a property may be worth less then the purchase price. The flip side is that the property usually is worth more when the market moves upward.



Historically these cycles had longer neutral periods between the up and down cycles. In recent years it seems the cycles are running closer together with a shorter cooling time between the up/down swings. This last cycle of course was not limited to California real estate but was a world wide phenomena which was largely caused by cheap credit and a lack of regulation for both financial institutions and borrowers.



When you review real estate prices in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and El Segundo over the last few years there is no question values have declined. If you bought a home in 2005-2007 your property in most cases is worth less then you paid. In some sub markets of the Beach Cities values have dropped to 2004 levels. The big question is what do you do if the value of your home is less then the purchase price...do you stay, try a short sell or walk... The answer to that is it depends on your circumstances.



While many homeowners who are in trouble will try to obtain a loan modification. Most folks in our area will find that is not an option as loans that were made prior to last year, when loan limits increased to $729,750, are not covered. Also the decline in value of properties in most cases is far more then that allowed by the FEDS to qualify for their programs. For some homeowners who owe more then the home is worth a short sale may seem like the answer, others will have no choice but foreclosure. There are folks who will simply walk away believing this is a smart choice. The majority of homeowners however will just wait the market out. The path you take will depend on your economic circumstances and your views on homeownership.



Short sales:

Short sales are not as simple as many believe. Most homeowners think of short sales as an easy way to sell a home that is no longer worth what they paid. They don't understand that a bank will only consider a short sale if the owner can prove that they can no longer make the payment on the loan. That usually means you have lost your job, gotten divorced, had a major medical issue, filed bankruptcy or all of the above. You will need to send the bank a package that includes certifiable proof of your financial problems. Your word that you can't pay is not enough.

Even if you can document your financial issues the bank may reject your plea if they feel they can get more money if they foreclose. You should also know that a short sale will affect your credit rating almost as much as a foreclosure. In addition if you refinanced the property the lender may make you sign a note to pay the bank the difference between what the home sells for and the amount of the loan... and still ding your credit.



Foreclosure:

Foreclosure is a tough step for most homeowners. Historically homeowners would do almost anything to avoid having their home taken back by the bank. With the record numbers of foreclosures through out the country the stigma that was once associated with the process is not as much of an issue today. However, contrary to what you may find on the internet, a foreclosure will damage your credit for a long time. It may impact your ability to get insurance, buy a car, obtain a credit card or even a job. A foreclosure generally stays on your credit record for 7 years.

While the government is touting loan modification programs, a number of lenders are not working with borrowers. Loan modifications are few and far between in CA. Some of the reasons are that lenders don't have the personnel or the knowledge to deal with the issue. In other cases the bank feels that the owner simply doesn't have the wherewithal to make the payments even if the loan is modified. In some instances the bank would make more if they foreclosed on the property.


One of the biggest issues with foreclosure is that while homeowners may not be able to make their payments many still have equity in the property. This often happens to people who have owned their homes for a long time and suddenly find themselves with unanticipated financial problems. They may try to sell but often they set a price that is too high. They get caught up in what they want for the home rather then what it is worth. These are the folks who say I'm not giving away my house ...I won't take a nickle less then $XXXX... sadly after too long on the market and no deal most wind up with nothing when they could have walked with some cash. In the 90's I worked with a secondary lender who tried to get owners to sell before they actually went into foreclosure. I was constantly amazed at sellers who wouldn't budge from an unrealistic price and wound up losing everything.


Walking away:

This has become a popular option for a number of people... even those who can make the payments but choose to walk because the property has lost value. They usually had very little if any money invested in the property. Most people who take this option view homeownership as an investment rather then as shelter or a lifestyle choice. The internet has popularized this choice as a smart one and many folks believe it. They believe that walking away will have few if any financial issues for them. For some this may even be true.

However as noted above in the foreclosure section there may well be more consequences then folks think. Many lenders are talking about making it very difficult for owners who walk away who do not have financial problems. Banks don't like folks who don't honor their financial obligations.

Last year I spoke with a couple about buying a property. They were adamant about the deal they expected to get. They made sure I knew they had walked away in the 90's from a property that was upside down in value to prove how savvy they were. They walked not because they couldn't make the payment but because it was worth less then they had paid. The funny thing is that the property they walked from is worth three times what they paid for it even in today's market. Had they not chosen to walk they would be sitting on a large chunk of equity instead of starting all over years later.



Sticking it out:

No matter what you read this is the choice of most homeowners. Generally owners will stay in their homes and make their monthly payment no matter how much the value goes up or down. A few years ago the in thing was to make fun of people who had lived here for a long time and had a lot of equity in their homes. But the fact is the owners had that equity because they rode out the cycles of the market. They paid the mortgage every month whether the value was up or down. They didn't walk away when their home lost value because it was a bad investment. Their ultimate goal was to pay the mortgage off and own their home.



In the last 10 years or so the idea of owning a home over the long term and paying off the mortgage disappeared. It was replaced by the concept of moving every few years to a bigger and better property. Leverage became the in word for homeowners rather then equity. Now of course a lot of folks who moved into bigger and better too quickly have found themselves underwater as the value of their homes plummeted.


I'm not really surprised to see a number of consumer blogs advising owners to walk away from their property if the value has decreased. It has become the smart thing to view a house as a stock market commodity rather then as shelter and a lifestyle choice. If you are in financial difficulty then you may not have many options other then those listed above. However if you aren't in a financial bind then I can't help but wonder why a smart owner would walk away because the value has changed. While it is true the market is currently down it is also true that it will go back up. It may take time but the winners in real estate are those who are in it for the long not the short term.


Many years ago it was a popular pastime for young ladies to learn stitchery and show off their skills in a sampler. One of the most popular sayings was ... home is where the heart is...It may sound corny but a lot of people still believe this to be true.

Friday, August 14, 2009

South Bay-Beach Cities Real Estate... the rest of the story...

Beach Cities.. my thoughts on where real estate prices headed for the second half of 2009....



Sometimes when I get caught up in my geeky statistical mode I'm not quite sure where the numbers will take me. Over the last week or so I've been posting information on home sales in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and El Segundo for the period January-June 2000-2009. My original intent was to stick with the year over year figures for January-June 2007-2009. I soon realized that I needed to go back further to get a better picture of market trends.


While those numbers were interesting and showed definite changes in the market, there was still something nagging me about the market. My focus became a bit clearer after I posted the stats for July 2009 in the Beach Cities. The overall trend was very clear... inventory is down, sale volume is up a bit and prices are significantly lower in all the Beach Cities. But there is more then that happening in our local market.


Reviewing the numbers it is easy to see that sales volume peaked for homes sold in Manhattan, Hermosa and North Redondo in 2002. However in El Segundo it peaked in 2001 and in South Redondo it was 2000. Using median sale prices it looks as if home prices peaked in El Segundo, and North and South Redondo in 2006. In Manhattan Beach it seems to have been 2008 and in Hermosa it appears that prices are still rising into 2009. ( The numbers for Hermosa are somewhat misleading as the volume of sales was very low with some high ticket sales in the Sand and Valley sections... the July 2009 numbers seem more in line with the peak around 2006).


Currently it appears as if home prices in 2009 are hovering between 2004 and 2003 in North and South Redondo and El Segundo. In Manhattan Beach , home prices are between 2005 and 2004 levels. When you kick in July numbers Hermosa real estate prices are also around 2005 to 2004 levels. Overall median price declines for all the Beach Cities seem to be averaging somewhere between 21%-25% from their respective peaks.



So what does the future look like for home prices in the South Bay-Beach Cities? Truthfully, my crystal ball started acting funny around 2006 and has never been the same since... but my guess is that we will see prices continue to slide over the next 6-9 months. Whether the slide is large or on the small side will depend on what happens in the economy. If the economy is truly seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel, with the prospect of the recession winding down before the end of the year, then prices will probably not fall much more then 7%-10%. But if the recession hangs on and moves into fields occupied by upper income folks then you can expect to see home prices falling at least 10% and perhaps as much as 20%. However I don't think you are going to see the low entry level prices drop much more. I believe that end of the market in all the Beach Cities will be relatively flat with the possible exception of older North Redondo townhomes that were built in the late '70's and early '80's.


Here's what I'm seeing... Banks are getting very tough not only on standards for a borrower but also on the appraised value assigned to the property purchase. Fewer comps in the higher end of the market means lower appraised values, which translates to unhappy buyers and sellers and deals that fall apart. It also translates to overall lower comparable sales or sliding prices. Sellers can't throw out a number they "want" or "need" and expect buyers or appraisers to go along without supporting data.


Buyers are not only being very choosy about condition and location but they are sticking to their guns about price. They have the luxury of time on their side and will walk from a property they feel is overpriced if the seller refuses to negotiate. On the other hand they will often bid higher on one they deem to be undervalued if there is a multiple offer situation. However they won't be stampeded into a purchase if they suspect they are being manipulated by a seller. All of these conditions happening together are part of the forces that are pushing prices lower.


I believe home prices over the $2M in the Beach Cities are going to start moving downward. Historically this area of the market has been very sticky as sellers don't necessarily "have" to sell. They can hold out for a higher price even though other sectors of the market are moving lower. We have a low rate of unemployment in the Beach Cities compared to other parts of the state. However in the last few months I'm seeing a number of buyers leaving the market because they have either lost their jobs or are concerned that they might. Many who own their own businesses are paring down as their companies struggle in the current economic malaise. Real Estate is not a oneway street and if buyers are having these issues, you can bet there are a number of homeowners who are also facing uncertain economic times. If we begin to see more upper income folks in trouble then we can expect to see prices drop as many scramble to get out from under and maybe take a little cash with them. Lack of security is a great motivator even for the upper income set.


Foreclosures have not been a significant part of our market but you may see that change. Most of the homeowners in the South Bay-Beach Cities have managed to weather the current financial storm. However if the recession starts to affect the middle-upper income segment of the market then you can expect to see more foreclosures and short sales in the Beach Cities. These lower priced sales in turn lower overall prices for those who may not be in financial trouble. If we suddenly see a spate of foreclosures and/or a dramatic increase in short sales you will see a corresponding drop in prices. The Beach Cities are considered to be a declining market and appraisers don't care if the sale is a short sale, a foreclosure or regular sale when looking at sold comps... a sale is a sale.



On the bright side rates will probably continue to be low through the Spring. If prices continue to slide into the fall and winter, buyers just might get some pretty good deals before the end of the year. As a number of buyers found out this Spring that some of the best deals happened in the 4th quarter of last year and January and February of this year.



If you own your home and need to refinance I know BofA and very likely other lenders will have some new programs that might finally help folks who need to refinance. If you need to refinance call a reputable lender now. The FEDS actually have a number of programs that might actually be of help.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Beach Cities Real Estate: Sold July 2009

South Bay-Beach Cities... home prices in Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and El Segundo July 2009...










July traditionally marks the end of the Spring/Summer selling season. Many of the homes that close escrow in August and September were actually sold in June or July. August is usually a slow month as folks gear up for one last trip out of town and getting the kids ready to go back to school.



For the last two years August was also the month that triggered bad financial news for our local real estate market as Jumbo loans saw rates move up significantly in 2007 and basically disappear in 2008. 2009 was a different story. Beginning in February, a number of major lenders not only got back in the jumbo loan market but did so with excellent rates. Of course getting one of those loans was more difficult but a number of buyers took advantage of the low rates along with lower prices and came back into the market.

Which brings us to sales figures for the Beach Cities in July 2009... what a difference a year makes. Inventory is down in all the Beach Cities, closed sales and pending sales are up and prices are at their lowest levels in a number of years. However the numbers also point out in very dramatic fashion the ongoing dichotomy between the median listed price and the median sold price. In El Segundo the difference between the median asking price and the median sold price of a home is 31%, in Manhattan Beach it is 33%, in Hermosa Beach it is 20%, in North Redondo the difference is only 8% while it is 39% in South Redondo. Townhomes show a similar picture.

Check out the information for July 2008 and you will notice that the numbers are not nearly so far apart. Of course the differences will vary within the various subareas of each community but the overall numbers tell an interesting tale about the current Beach Cities real estate market.



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2009 (click on graph to enlarge)



























South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2009


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2009



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2009



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2009



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2009



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold December 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2008





South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold October 2008


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold September 2008


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold August 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold July 2008



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2008

South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2008




South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2008



South Bay-Beach Cities: SOLD March 2008



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2008



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2008



South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold November 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: October SOLD 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: September SOLD 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: August SOLD 2007


South Bay- Beach Cities: July Sold 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold June 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold May 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold April 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold March 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold February 2007


South Bay-Beach Cities: Sold January 2007

Saturday, August 08, 2009

El Segundo: Sold January-June 2000-2009

El Segundo home sales from January 2000-June 2009....




















It has been said that El Segundo is a small midwest town that was magically transported to California sometime before 1940... and that no one has yet told the residents the town has moved. There really is a Main Street and you can almost hear Judy Garland and Mickey Rooney rounding up the gang to stage a musical that is Broadway bound.



Unlike Manhattan, Hermosa and Redondo there are no homes along the beach. El Segundo was planned as a company town by Standard Oil around the turn of the century. The focus for El Segundo was the large Park in the center of town and the Standard Oil/Chevron plant just south of town where for many years almost everyone who lived in El Segundo worked.

Times have changed and today folks who choose to live in El Segundo are usually looking for a quieter lifestyle then is found in the rest of the Beach Cities. There are few tourists crowding downtown on the week-ends. But that may soon change as El Segundo continues to grow and new restaurants are making downtown a trendy dining area.

Real Estate in El Segundo is like the city itself... a market that seems a bit different then the other Beach Cities. While home prices rose as they did in the other Beach Cities, the volume of sales remained much the same until 2008-2009. Inventory and sales have remained surprisingly stable over the last few years. The peak of the market was 2006 with a median value of $904,000. Since then prices have declined to 2004/2003 levels.




El Segundo: Sold January-June 2000-2009 (click on graph to enlarge)

Friday, August 07, 2009

Redondo Beach: Sold January-June 2000-2009

Redondo Beach: Home Sales January-June 2000-2009








The Avenues... South Redondo...







Redondo Beach is a unique market within the Beach Cities real estate market. North Redondo is the most affordable area of all the Beach Cities. It is the point of entry for many buyers who want to live within biking distance of the water but can't afford the home prices in Manhattan, Hermosa or South Redondo.

South Redondo is the oldest of the Beach areas and still maintains a number of homes built in the "teens" - '30's. Many have been well maintained over the years and can be viewed during the Redondo Historical Homes tour. Sadly others are destined for the wrecking ball due to years of neglect. Generally South Redondo home prices are lower then Manhattan and Hermosa for two reasons... commute time and non-conforming zoning in most of the residential areas.

The Avenues in South Redondo feature classic examples of the types of architecture that were common in so much of Southern California through the 1950's. These streets are wide and are just a short walk to the sand.

North Redondo is often the precursor to the direction of home prices ... either up or down around the Beach Cities. It is the entry level buyer who often determines when prices begin an upswing and when the cycle stops. The upper level may sustain price increases in some areas but the entry level buyer signals price comfort levels. In 2006, the North Redondo townhome market virtually came to a halt for 4 months as entry level buyers began to question the market. While sales picked up in the spring of 2007, the handwriting was on the wall... so to speak.

As real estate prices in Manhattan and Hermosa are hovering between 2005/2004 prices, both North and South Redondo have seen home prices decline to 2004/2003 prices with sales volume well below those years. If you are trying to "time" the market it might be a smart move to keep an eye on this often overlooked segment of the market. While the Manhattan Beach home market is often the last to drop and the first to recover; the North Redondo market usually gives a clue to where the overall market is headed when it begins to stabilize.






Redondo Beach: Sold January-June 2000-2009




South Redondo: Sold January-June 2000-2009(click on graph to enlarge)


























North Redondo: Sold January-June 2000-2009



Monday, August 03, 2009

Hermosa Beach Real Estate: Sold January-June 2000-2009






Hermosa Beach has always been the younger version of Manhattan Beach... a little more casual and a tad more non-conformist then its sister city to the north. But like all younger siblings Hermosa is beginning to grow up...



New construction in the north end along The Strand and many walkstreets is rivaling prices in Manhattan Beach. The Hermosa Valley is home to some very pricey homes on large lots. This quiet area is a "locals knowledge" area similar to the "estate sized lots" just east of Sepulveda in Manhattan Beach. The Hermosa Hills east of PCH are also seeing older homes being torn down to make way for larger homes often with some fabulous views.

Much of Hermosa is made up of non-conforming zoning with townhomes next door to single family homes or small income properties. Hermosa has managed to retain more of the older beach cottages then Manhattan which makes for some quaint and charming walk street homes.

While the volume of sales is down by a large percentage...the overall median price of homes in Hermosa has not declined... but has in fact gone up every year since 2000. The reason is some hefty sale prices along The Strand, in the Sand section and in the Hermosa Valley. In the Hermosa Hills, east of PCH, we see a different story. Not only are sales down but prices are closer to 2003 levels.

As with Manhattan Beach one of the looming issues is the lack of comps for some of the higher priced properties. With only 32 home and 28 townhome/condo sales in all of Hermosa from January-June you can expect some real issues with appraisals in the coming months.


Hermosa Beach: Sold January-June 2000-2009(click on graph to enlarge)




























Hermosa Beach: Sand January-June 2000-2009





















Hermosa Beach: Hermosa Valley January -June 2000-2009


























Hermosa Beach: Hermosa Hills January-June 2000-2009